INTRODUCTION:

Pricing!

I keep coming back to the same subject over and over again. Do some people consider what we have seen in land prices a parabolic move? My dad always said that if we saw land prices in the paper like the stock market we would see how much it fluctuates. Are there some good buys out there? for sure. Are there people that think that inflation is going to make them rich and that land prices can only go up? for sure. My thoughts are that I have been in the land business for a very long time and I have seen prices go down as fast as they have gone up. I read a lot of farm magazines and there is constant chatter about the lack of bidders and no sales. Problem with auctions is if you do a no sale then people are going to remember the last price yelled out in the auction and you will be stuck with that price. I had an older man tell me that auctions will work when prices go up because no one wants to sell low and when the market turns, which they always do, then you get a realtor because you dont want the low price. Good land will always bring a premium and there will be a way to back into the worth of the land with the return you recieve. This marginal land is the land that worries me. Are there enough people out there to purchase everyone's mistakes?

Expensive is when you pay a lot of money and at the end of the day you feel betrayed by the cost. We are talking a lot about Tariffs and trade wars. I was farming in the 1980's and there was an embargo put in place on our grain then interest rates went to 20%. A Lot of really good farmers and people lost their farms with the above scenario and I have to say we may not see this extreme again but to think that everything will just keep going up is a fool's game. Marginal land prices today worry me.